Everywhere I went this week in San Antonio — the hair salon, the grocery store, the chiropractor, a local restaurant — I felt as though I was in the opening scene of the 1939 movie, The Wizard of Oz, when Dorothy’s house landed on the wicked witch. The mood here was as euphoric, almost giddy with relief and disbelief. “Ding-Dong” sang the Munchkins as they danced around. But the biggest difference I noticed is that no one was reluctant at all about openly expressing their happiness over Tuesday’s election results — lurking ICE agents in our sanctuary city be damned!
Strangers congratulating strangers made me smile, but upon further reflection, it was the lyrics from another Wizard of Oz song, “It Really Was No Miracle,” that came to mind. While the Munchkins danced, the good witch Glinda proclaimed that when Dorothy fell out of Kansas, a miracle occurred, but Dorothy begged to differ:
It really was no miracle. What happened was just this
The wind began to switch — the house began to pitch
And suddenly the hinges started to unhitch.
Exactly! Anybody who had been paying attention to Texas over the last few years knew that, in spite of all the red state bluster, “the wind was beginning to switch and the house was starting to pitch.” But you had to be paying attention to more than just the politicians.
As a writer/reporter for many years on issues of public concern, I found The Statistical Abstract of the United States to be my best reference friend. Historically published every year by the U.S. Census Bureau (now published by ProQuest and Bloomsbury), this 1000+ page national data book documents social, political, demographic, and economic statistics from which trends in specific geographic areas and in the nation at large can be studied. In spite of the on-going arguments about who should be counted and how data should best be gathered, the results of the U.S. Census every decade (the last one was in 2020, the next will be in 2030) is still the best, most reliable compilation of America’s facts and figures. (A personal note: my Mother was a census taker in her retirement, an undertaking that she found incredibly enlightening and fulfilling.)
But back to the house beginning to pitch and the “red” hinges starting to unhitch in Texas. The most important demographic fact is that Texas has the second largest population in the Country after California, which makes it a major player when it comes to determining presidential outcomes. Since 2010, there has been a relocation of 6.5 million residents here to a Texas total of 31.71 million. Most of that growth was due to net migration, both domestic and international, and to increasing birth rates attributed to a younger population.
The largest number of domestic migrants come from California, New York, and Illinois; the international newcomers arrive from Mexico, India, China, and Central and South America. The characteristics of all these new arrivals are what really tell the story: the average age is roughly 32, while the vast majority fall within the 25-44 working age bracket. According to the Texas Demographic Center, newcomers are generally well-educated: US migrants who are 25 and older skewer toward higher education, with 55% having a bachelor’s or higher degree, depending on the occupation. More than a quarter of international arrivals have a college degree. All and all, new arrivals outpace long-term, non-migrant Texas residents in terms of educational achievement.
Texas grew 15.8% in the last ten years (by about 4.3 million people) and 77,161 relocated from California alone in 2024. Though most identified as Democrats, their exodus was driven by dollars, not politics; just as in the mid-term elections, the motivations that propelled their moves were housing, jobs, affordability and education. Even so, there is no denying that the big blue wave of younger, more liberal residents enabled Democrats to surf to power.
Gina Hinojosa is not only the first Texas Latina Governor, but the first Democratic Governor since Ann Richards (1991-95)! James Talarico is the first Democratic Senator since 1988, and Lt. Governor Vikki Goodwin the first Democrat since 1991-99. Other newly-elected state officers include Democrats for Attorney General, Land Commissioner, Agriculture Commissioner and Railroad Commissioner. Republicans held on to a State Senate majority, but the State House is now 83 to 67 Democratic.
All this portends big changes in the Lone Star State next year, particularly in education, where the private school voucher system has drained funding from public schools and DEI initiatives have accelerated book bans and curtailed academic freedom even in the universities. Data Centers, use of natural resources, and land management over border wall construction will see much more oversight and push-back, and big cities will demand more autonomy. We won’t turn back twelve years of Greg Abbott’s leadership overnight, but we can begin to dismantle some of his more recent propositions on abortion, healthcare, voter restrictions, gun laws and border enforcement.
I like to think that my native Texans have always been a decent people, people who are fiercely independent, who work hard, and who are generally willing to live and let live. Family, community, church — these are the traditional values inherited from generations raised on farms and ranches, with some of the daring bravado of oil-field wildcatters thrown in for good measure. But over the years as fast-paced urban expansion has pretty much obliterated the rural life, the country values of honestly, trust, truth and self-reliance have begun to seem quaint and out of place. Many of my native Texans, as unaccustomed as they had become to the fast-talking, big rich flim-flamers, fell easy prey to false promises, and that’s how we so embarrassed ourselves as to become so totally, solidly “red in the face.”
At least that’s what I like to tell myself these days. Ding-Dong!
